We consider the same basic AK model with technology change:
and
where
and
with
depreciation
We can calculate which state we are in from the last point backward.
When we are in state 1, the previous state would be state 1 with probability p11 and
state 2 with probability (1-p11). When we are in state 2, the previous state would be
state 1 with probability p21 and state 2 with probability (1-p21). From a certain state,
we simulate it backward from the last to the first.